Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 15 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There was
no significant activity observed this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
increased to near 480 km/s as a coronal hole rotated into a
geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with isolated unsettled periods.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 068 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 010/012-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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