Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 16 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 228 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity remains at very low levels. There was no
activity of note in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Enhanced
solar wind flow from a coronal hole produced occasional unsettled
periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes. A coronal hole currently near disk center will
rotate into geoeffective position on 19 August and produce
occasional unsettled to active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Aug 067 Predicted 17 Aug-19 Aug 065/065/065 90 Day Mean 16 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug 008/008-005/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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