Viewing archive of Monday, 25 February 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 25 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 983 (S01W39), currently classified as an Axx alpha group, was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (26 February). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (27 February). Unsettled to active levels are expected on day three (28 February) with isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Feb 071
  Predicted   26 Feb-28 Feb  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        25 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Feb  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb  005/005-007/008-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%25%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

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