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Viewing archive of Wednesday, 2 April 2008

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 02 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No significant flare activity occurred. Region 987 (S08W89) was quiet and stable as it neared the west limb. Region 988 (S07W63) remained a stable H-type. Minor filament activity was reported in plage Region 989 (S11W28). No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (03 April). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on day 2 (04 April) with active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. A further increase to active levels is expected on day 3 (05 April) with minor to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream continues.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Apr 076
  Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  075/075/070
  90 Day Mean        02 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Apr  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  005/005-007/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%40%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%50%
Minor storm01%01%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 00:51 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Nuuk
Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Trondheim
Sundsvall, Umeå
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (543.7 km/sec.)
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (12.13nT), the direction is slightly South (-6.86nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-59nT)
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C5.75

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