Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 April 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 03 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 094 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Spotless plage Region 989
(S11W41) produced two low-level C-class flares early in the period.
No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
from plage Region 989.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (04 April) with
active periods at high latitudes as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. Activity is expected to
increase to active levels on days 2 - 3 (05 - 06 April) with minor
to major storm periods at high latitudes as the high-speed stream
continues.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 076 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 007/010-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Whitehorse, YTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK
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