Viewing archive of Friday, 13 June 2008

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Jun 13 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 998 (S10E12) decayed slightly in area from 30 millionths to 20 millionths during the summary period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for days one and two (14 and 15 June) of the forecast period. Conditions are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance of isolated active periods on day three (16 June) due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jun 067
  Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        13 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jun  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

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