Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 October 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Oct 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low with no flares observed.
During the period, Region 1005 (N27W02) decayed both in spot count
and areal coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind velocity, as
measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decayed and ended the period
near 375 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels all three days of the forecast period
(15 - 17 October).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 070 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 072/073/075 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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