Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 March 2009

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Mar 11 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 070 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 of the forecast period (12 March). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during days 2 - 3 (13 - 14 March) with a chance for minor to major storm periods at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       11 Mar 070
  Predicted   12 Mar-14 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        11 Mar 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Mar  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar  005/005-012/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	20%	15%
Minor storm	01%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	30%	25%
Minor storm	01%	20%	15%
Major-severe storm	01%	05%	05%

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu
Arkhangelsk
Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Oslo
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar

The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.94 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.28nT), the direction is North (5.02nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-162nT)

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