Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 April 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Apr 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The STEREO spacecraft
observed a CME which was possibly correlated with a small dimming on
the solar disk around sun center and just north of the equator as
observed by EIT imagery at 14/0148UT. No flares were observed
during the last 24 hours. The solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for 16 April. Predominately
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected for
17 April due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet
levels are expected to return for 18 April. Although the CME
discussed in Part IA may be observed at ACE, no significant increase
in geomagnetic activity is expected.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 069 Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 15 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 005/005-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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