Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 April 2009

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Apr 15 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The STEREO spacecraft observed a CME which was possibly correlated with a small dimming on the solar disk around sun center and just north of the equator as observed by EIT imagery at 14/0148UT. No flares were observed during the last 24 hours. The solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for 16 April. Predominately unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are expected for 17 April due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to return for 18 April. Although the CME discussed in Part IA may be observed at ACE, no significant increase in geomagnetic activity is expected.

III. Event Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       15 Apr 069
  Predicted   16 Apr-18 Apr  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        15 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Apr  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  005/005-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr to 18 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	15%	05%
Minor storm	01%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	20%	10%
Minor storm	01%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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G3 - Strong geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 7
Threshold reached: 19:32 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu
Arkhangelsk
Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Oslo
Sundsvall

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar

The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.94 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.28nT), the direction is North (5.02nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-162nT)

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