Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Monday, 8 June 2009

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jun 08 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 1020 (N22E07) was numbered today as a BXO spot classification with 2 spots visible in white light. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for 09 June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 10 June with predominantly quiet levels returning for 11 June.

III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       08 Jun 069
  Predicted   09 Jun-11 Jun  069/069/069
  90 Day Mean        08 Jun 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jun  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun  005/005-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	10%	05%
Minor storm	01%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	05%	15%	05%
Minor storm	01%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 8
Threshold reached: 20:54 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi
Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Bergen, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Helsinki, Tampere, Turku
Petrozavodsk, Syktyvkar

The density of the solar wind is moderate (23.49 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (12.3nT), the direction is North (5.65nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-147nT)

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