Viewing archive of Monday, 29 June 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Jun 29 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled to active levels occurred until 29/0600Z, followed by mostly quiet conditions. ACE solar wind observations indicated Earth remained under the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually increased until around 29/1500Z (peak 575 km/sec at 29/1501Z), then remained elevated for the rest of the period. A period of sustained southward IMF Bz occurred until around 29/0200Z (minimum -9 nT at 29/2102Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (30 June). Field activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days 2 - 3 (01 - 02 July) as the high-speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 069
  Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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