Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 October 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 22 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. An isolated period of minor storm levels was observed at 22/1200Z. A geomagnetic sudden impulse occurred at 22/0019Z (11 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). This activity was associated with a faint partial-halo CME which was observed around 17/1900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet on day one (23 October). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (24 - 25 October) in response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Oct 072
  Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%20%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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