Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 October 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Oct 21 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
Region 1028 (N26E38) has decayed to spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (22 - 23 October). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day three (24 October) in response
to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 071 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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