Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 November 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Nov 17 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. A B1.5 flare occurred at
17/1259Z, most likely originating from the new emerging flux region
near N19E68.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for days one and two (18-19
November). Quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated
active periods, are expected late on day three (20 November). The
increase in activity is expected as a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 077 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 078/079/080 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 000/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 005/006-005/007-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NU, Yellowknife, NTNuuk
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