Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 September 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Sep 24 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1026 (S29E28)
produced a B1 x-ray flare at 24/0020Z. This region remains an
H-type spot group. Region 1027 (N24E05) continues to grow slightly
in area and spot count and remains unchanged in its magnetic beta
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day one (25 September). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions, are expected for
day two (26 September). This activity is expected due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected to return for day three (27 September).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Sep 075 Predicted 25 Sep-27 Sep 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 24 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 005/005-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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