Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N28W04) produced
a C1.1 flare at 1320Z along with numerous B-class flares. Region
1040 showed little change in areal coverage (300 millionths) and was
classified as an Eao-beta group with 25 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a slight chance Region 1040 could produce an
isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet with a slight chance for isolated
unsettled periods on day one (13 January) due to the presence of a
coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected for
days two and three (14-15 January).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jan 093 Predicted 13 Jan-15 Jan 093/093/090 90 Day Mean 12 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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