Viewing archive of Monday, 8 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 08 2211 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W17)
produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours. STEREO and
SOHO/LASCO imagery observed CME activity with each of the three
events. The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated
Tenflare of 150 sfu. This region has continued to grow in both
white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic
beta-gamma-delta configuration. There were two additional Tenflares
observed during the period (both associated with Region 1045
events), a C7/Sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare, and a C8/1f at
08/0523Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare. A new region was numbered today
as Region 1047 (S15E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely. There is a slight chance for a
X-class event from Region 1045.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. One unsettled period at
mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active
conditions for the next three days (09-11 February). These
conditions are forecast due to the recent CME activity.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Feb 094 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 096/096/094 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/009-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiKirkenes, Tromsø
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå
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