Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 19 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. The new region rotating on
to the east limb (new Region 1041, near S27) produced an M2.3 flare
at 19/1341Z and an M1.7 flare at 19/2035Z, as well as three
C-flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Occasional C-class flares are expected. Isolated
M-class flares are likely.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active levels at
high latitudes, on day one (20 January) due to a coronal hole
high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to return on days two
and three (21-22 January).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 084 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 007/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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