Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 January 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 20 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1041 (S25E77) produced four M-class flares during the past 24 hours, as well as numerous C-class flares. The largest of these was an M3.4/Sf at 20/1755Z. Region 1041 was classified as a Cso-beta group with six spots, as it rotated on to the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Occasional M-class flares are likely. Frequent C-class flares are expected.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, with isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated the onset of a co-rotating interaction region around 20/0900Z. Solar wind velocity increased from 300 km/s to a max of 525 km/s at 20/1834 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) activity showed an enhancement of total field of 19 nT, and the southern component of the IMF ranged between +15 nT and -17 nT. Density reached 48 p/cc at 20/1546Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (21-23 January).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jan 082
  Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan  083/084/085
  90 Day Mean        20 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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