Viewing archive of Monday, 15 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 15 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N21E50) produced a low-level C-class flare early in the period. Region 1046 (N24W36) continued to gradually decay. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1048.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind data indicated an interplanetary shock passage at approximately 15/1725Z. This was followed by a weak geomagnetic sudden impulse at 15/1832Z (02 nT, Boulder USGS magnetometer). The shock was likely associated with the M8/CME event of 12 February.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (16 - 17 February) with a chance for active levels. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (18 February).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 088
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb  086/084/084
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  010/010-010/010-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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