Viewing archive of Friday, 22 January 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jan 22 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1041 (S25E50) produced several B-class flares, the
largest being a B9 flare at 22/1711Z. Region 1041 is stable and
classified as a Eso-beta with 7 spots. New Region 1042 (N22W28)
emerged on the disk today and is classified as a Cso-beta with 3
spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance for a M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (23-25
January).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 082 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 085/085/086 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 00% | 00% |
All times in UTC
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