Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 December 2009

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Dec 26 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. New Region 1039 (S26E45) was numbered today as a three-spot, Bxo-beta spot group. During the period, several low-level B-class flares occurred from Region 1039. The largest of these was a B4.8 at 1657Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (27-29 December).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Dec 076
  Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec  076/077/078
  90 Day Mean        26 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Dec  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.1nT), the direction is slightly South (-8.61nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-64nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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