Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 18 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Isolated B-class flares occurred during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active levels during day 1 (19 February). Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on days 2 - 3 (20 - 21 February).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Feb 085
  Predicted   19 Feb-21 Feb  085/085/084
  90 Day Mean        18 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Feb  007/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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