Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 February 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 17 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Isolated B-class flares occurred during the period. New Region 1049 (S19E02) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active levels during days 1 - 2 (18 - 19 February). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (20 February).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Feb 087
  Predicted   18 Feb-20 Feb  088/088/086
  90 Day Mean        17 Feb 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb  011/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Feb  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb  010/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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