Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 March 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 16 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1054 (N14W25) was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic
complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (17-19 March) with a chance
for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1054.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed a minor
increase is speed values ranging from 350-440 km/s indicating the
arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next two days
(17-18 March) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and
the arrival of partial halo CME arriving on day two. Geomagnetic
activity levels are expected to return to quiet levels on day three
(19 March).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 085 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 007/007-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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