Viewing archive of Monday, 12 April 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Apr 12 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. New Region 1062 (S18W05) was numbered today as a small sunspot group but was beginning to decay at the end of the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (13-15 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during the past 24 hours. Activity levels began the interval at unsettled to active levels, but a strong substorm occurred between 0000-0300Z with major to severe storm levels at many of the observatories. Active to minor storm levels prevailed for 0300-0900Z and quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the interval from 0900-2100Z. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft showed the continuation of yesterdays disturbed flow associated with the 08 April CME. Of particular note was the northward turning of the Bz component at 0142Z which was preceded by about 13 hours of moderately southward Bz (-5 to -10 nT), evidently triggering the substorm which started shortly after 0200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with periods of unsettled levels for the first day (13 April). Quiet levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days (14-15 April).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Apr 075
  Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        12 Apr 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Apr  018/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
C8.08

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