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Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 May 2010

Solar activity report

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Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 09 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. Region 1069 (N41W89) produced the only activity of the period, a long duration, B1.3 x-ray event at 09/1541Z. A slow moving CME (estimated velocity 225 km/s) was observed early in the period lifting off the NW limb in the vicinity of Region 1069. The CME did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance of C-class activity on day one (10 May) from departing Region 1069. On days two and three (11 - 12 May), solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities declined steadily from 452 km/s to 375 km/s through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet during day one (10 May) of the forecast period. The field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for isolated active conditions, on days two and three (11 - 12 May) due to recurrent co-rotating interaction regions/coronal hole high speed wind streams.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 May 075
  Predicted   10 May-12 May  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        09 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 May  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 May  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May  005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%25%20%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%30%30%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (689.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-56nT)

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