Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 May 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 May 09 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 129 Issued at 2200Z on 09 May 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was
spotless. Region 1069 (N41W89) produced the only activity of the
period, a long duration, B1.3 x-ray event at 09/1541Z. A slow
moving CME (estimated velocity 225 km/s) was observed early in the
period lifting off the NW limb in the vicinity of Region 1069. The
CME did not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance of C-class activity on day one (10 May)
from departing Region 1069. On days two and three (11 - 12 May),
solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities declined
steadily from 452 km/s to 375 km/s through the period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet during day one (10 May) of the forecast period.
The field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled, with a
slight chance for isolated active conditions, on days two and three
(11 - 12 May) due to recurrent co-rotating interaction
regions/coronal hole high speed wind streams.
III. Event Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 May 075 Predicted 10 May-12 May 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 09 May 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 May 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 May-12 May 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 May to 12 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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