Viewing archive of Monday, 15 March 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Mar 15 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. Region 1054 (N14W14) has showed slight decay but continues
to maintain its magnetic Beta-Gamma configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels for the next three days (16-18 March).
C-flares are likely from Region 1054. There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-class event also from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days
(16-18 March). The increase in activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed stream on day one and day two, and a slow
moving partial halo CME observed on 13 February arriving late on day
three.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 086 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 086/086/087 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 002/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 007/007-007/007-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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