Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 01 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low throughout the forecast period (02-04 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with an isolated active
period from 03-06Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods at high latitudes on days 1 and 2 (02-03 July) due to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected on day 3 (04 July) as the effects from the coronal hole
high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 073 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 072/072/074 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 015/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/012-008/010-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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