Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 July 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 28 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1089 (S24W48) produced a
few B-class x-ray flares as well as a C2 event at 28/2042Z. Newly
numbered Region 1092 (N16E76) remains quiet and stable since
rotating into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for a C-class flare as well as a slight chance for
an M-class flare from Region 1089. A slight chance for a C-class
flare also exists from Region 1092.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of an isolated period of minor storming between
28/00-28/03Z. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance for active
conditions on day 1 (29 July). Mostly quiet to unsettled with a
slight chance for active conditions are forecast for days 2 and 3
(30-31 July).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 083 Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 085/087/087 90 Day Mean 28 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 011/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 010/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul to 31 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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