Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 July 2010

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Jul 06 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours. A long duration B1 flare began at 05/1836Z, peaked at 06/0024Z, and ended at 06/0312Z. This event was associated with a CME observed in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery, lifting off the NW limb at 05/2108Z. The source of this CME appeared to be a filament eruption, observed in SOHO EIT imagery at 05/1751Z on the NW limb near N26. This CME does not appear to be earth-directed. A second filament eruption occurred near N36E16, observed in SOHO EIT imagery at 06/0400Z. Region 1086 (N18W65) produced a B1 flare at 06/1011Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next three days.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (07-09 July). Isolated unsettled levels are expected at high latitudes on day three (09 July).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       06 Jul 073
  Predicted   07 Jul-09 Jul  074/074/074
  90 Day Mean        06 Jul 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jul  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul  005/005-005/005-005/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul to 09 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	05%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	05%
Minor storm	01%	01%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 8
Threshold reached: 20:54 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå

The density of the solar wind is moderate (20.34 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.37nT), the direction is North (5.79nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-134nT)

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