Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 August 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 04 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. New Region 1093 (N10E63) produced a few B-class flares as it rotated into view and was classified as a Cao-type group with a beta magnetic configuration. Region 1092 (N14W15) was quiet and stable during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. However, there will be a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1093.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm levels due to a CME passage associated with a long-duration C3 flare on 01 August. The major storm levels occurred during 03/2100 - 04/0300Z and were associated with increased solar wind velocities (peak 657 km/s), increased IMF BT (peak 18 nT), and a sustained period of southward IMF Bz (peak deflection -13 nT). Activity was at unsettled to minor storm levels after 04/0300Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit decreased to normal to moderate levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels until midday on day 1 (05 August). Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels beginning midday on 05 August due to the expected arrival of a CME associated with a large filament disappearance on 01 August. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 2 (06 August) as the CME passage continues. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (07 August).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Aug 081
  Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug  082/084/084
  90 Day Mean        04 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  014/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  027/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  030/035-020/020-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm40%25%05%
Major-severe storm20%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%40%25%
Minor storm45%30%10%
Major-severe storm30%10%01%

All times in UTC

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