Viewing archive of Sunday, 7 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1121 (S18E36)
produced a C5/1F at 07/0141Z. Region 1121 was classified as an Esi
spot group, with a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. No new regions
were numbered. A small, faint earth-directed CME was observed on
both STEREO A and B coronagraph imagery, beginning at 07/0410Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, on days one and two (08-09 November).
Quiet levels are expected on day three (10 November). Further
analysis will be required to determine if the CME observed earlier
will be geoeffective. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10
MeV proton event from Region 1121.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 085 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 087/090/090 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 007/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 09% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 03% | 01% |
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