Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S23W24) produced the only C-class x-ray event of the period, a C1.3/Sf at 13/1128Z. Associated with this event were radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz. An eight degree filament with east-west orientation disappeared from the disk near N31W09 around 13/06Z. A halo CME became visible on LASCO C2 at 13/11Z and on C3 and STEREO coronagraphs by 13/21Z with an earth sided trajectory. This event is believed to be associated with the DSF at 13/06Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low with a C-class x-ray event likely for the next 3 days (14-16 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active conditions on day 1 (14 November). Conditions are forecast to be mostly active with the chance for minor storming on days 2 and 3 (15-16 November), due to the expected arrival of a combined shock from multiple CMEs observed on 11 and 12 November.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Nov 085
  Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        13 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  009/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  008/010-018/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%50%
Minor storm10%45%20%
Major-severe storm05%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%50%
Minor storm10%50%30%
Major-severe storm05%20%15%

All times in UTC

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