Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S22W37) produced a
C1/Sf flare at 14/0001Z. Region 1124 (N14W17) has grown in spot
count as well as area while producing several B-class x-ray events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares likely for the next three days (15-17 November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with the chance for minor storming and
a slight chance major storming on day 1 (15 Nov) due to the
forecasted arrival of a shock from the CME on 12 November.
Conditions are expected to persist at mostly active levels with the
chance for minor storming on day 2 (16 November), and mostly active
with a slight chance for minor storming on day 3 (17 November).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Nov 086 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 006/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 020/020-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov to 17 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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