Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 December 2010

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted of a single B-class flare, a B4 at 1117Z from Region 1131 (N31W47). Regions 1131 and 1133 (N15W22) were generally quiet and stable during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally unsettled for the 1st day (12 December) in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected to prevail for the 2nd and 3rd days (13-14 December).

III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       11 Dec 087
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  088/089/090
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  000/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	05%
Minor storm	05%	05%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	25%	25%	05%
Minor storm	15%	10%	01%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi
Luleå

The density of the solar wind is moderate (21.07 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (12.43nT), the direction is North (5.21nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-131nT)

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