Viewing archive of Friday, 26 November 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 1128 (S14E46) has grown slightly in extent and is a Bxo-Beta type spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1128.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (27 November). Day two (28 November) is expected to be quiet with a slight chance for isolated unsettled periods due to the CME observed on 24 November becoming geo-effective. Conditions are expected to return to quiet levels on day three (29 November).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Nov 076
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov  076/076/076
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  001/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  005/005-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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