Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. A partial halo CME was observed off the southwest quadrant of the sun on the SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery around 23/0736Z. The event was also observed on C3 and STEREO ahead/behind COR2 imagery. The source of the event is a possible disappearing filament just transiting around the visible disk in the southwest.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (24 December). Quiet to slightly unsettled levels are expected for day two (25 December) due to a solar sector boundary crossing. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return for day three (26 December).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 080
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec  078/078/080
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  001/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  001/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%15%05%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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