Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147
(N25E22) produced a few low-level B-class flares during the period.
Region 1147 remained a Cso group and retained its magnetic
complexity, but decayed slightly in area and spot count. Region 1148
(S28W57) decayed to an Axx group with 1 spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active to minor storm levels were observed at high
latitudes between 19/0900-1500Z due to a coronal hole high-speed
stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels during days one and two
(20-21 January). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (22 January) due
to a new coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 081 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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