Viewing archive of Friday, 24 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No significant events
were observed during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicate a solar sector boundary crossing occurred around
23/2230Z. Density has shown a steady increase through the period
accompanied by increasing solar wind speeds from 240 to 340 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (25 December). Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active levels are expected for days two and
three (26-27 December). Increased activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream and possible effects from the CME
observed 23 December.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 079 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 078/080/080 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 001/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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