Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A 12 degree long filament, centered at N24W68, erupted and was observed by ground-based observers and in SDO/AIA 171 imagery lifting off the disk at 14/1449Z. Simultaneously, a long duration C2.3/Sf flare was observed in Region 1133 (N15W61) at 14/1550Z. An associated CME, visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, was seen lifting off the northwest limb at 14/1536Z. The CME did not appear to be earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event all three days (15-17 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as a coronal hole high speed stream continued to influence the magnetosphere. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to approximately 650 km/s at forecast time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected be quiet to unsettled for days 1 and 2 (15-16 December) due to the continued influence of coronal hole high speed streams. Day 3 (17 December) is expected to bring a return to quiet conditions as the influence of coronal hole high speed streams wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Dec 090
  Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  088/088/086
  90 Day Mean        14 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Dec  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  007/007-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%10%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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