Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Region 1135 (N19E17)
produced a long duration B7 flare at 16/0427Z. This region regained
a couple spots today and is classified as a Bxo beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1135.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicate a continued decline in solar wind speeds ranging
from 550 km/s down to 450 km/s through the period. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for day one (17 December). Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for days two and three (18-19
December) as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 084 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 005/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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