Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 January 2011

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity remained very low with occasional low-level B-class flares. Region 1140 (N33W74) developed a few spots north of its main spot and was classified as a Cso-type group. It produced a B-class flare as it approached the west limb. Region 1146 (N23E33) showed little change during the period and produced a single B-class flare. Two B-class flares were observed on the southwest limb and attributed to plage Region 1142 (S17, L=212), which departed the visible disk early in the period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low through the period (12 - 14 January).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 - 2 (12 - 13 January). Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for brief active levels on day 3 (14 January) as a recurrent coronal high-speed stream becomes geoeffective.

III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       11 Jan 083
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan  082/080/080
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	05%	05%	20%
Minor storm	01%	01%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	10%	30%
Minor storm	01%	01%	15%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

All times in UTC

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G4 - Severe geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 8
Threshold reached: 20:54 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere

The density of the solar wind is moderate (22.35 p/cm³)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (11.64nT), the direction is North (6.15nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-137nT)

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