Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1147 (N27E65) produced isolated to occasional B-flares. Region 1147 is currently classified as a Dso-Beta group with 5 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during the period (17-19 January) with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (17 January). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day two (18 January), due to a weak coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected again on day three (19 January).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 080
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  080/080/082
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  002/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  005/005-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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