Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 April 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 095 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only B-class flares were observed. Region 1185 (N23E50) increased from 50 millionths to approximately 100 millionths in the past 24 hours. Region 1183 (N14W54) decreased from 90 millionths to approximately 20 millionths in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (06 - 08 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The Ace spacecraft observed an IP shock at 05/1804Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days (06 - 08 April) in response to the IP shock mentioned above and coronal hole high speed effects.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Apr 109
  Predicted   06 Apr-08 Apr  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        05 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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