Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 May 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 130 Issued at 2200Z on 10 May 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. A C5 x-ray flare occurred at 09/2059Z from a region rounding the northeast limb at the time of this report. This region appeared to be the return of old Region 1193 (N17, L=266), which produced C-class flares during its previous rotation. The C5 flare was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 1225 km/s, based on SOHO/LASCO images, and appeared to have an Earthward component. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (11 - 13 May) with a chance for an M-class flare from the region now crossing the northeast limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind measurements indicated a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), in advance of a coronal hole high-speed stream, commenced around 10/0400Z. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from 302 to 398 km/s during the period. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) changes associated with the CIR included increased Bt (peak 10 nT at 05/1338Z) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (maximum deflection -10 nT at 05/1338Z). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (11 May), then increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm levels on day 2 (12 May) as the CH HSS persists. The CME observed today may also disturb the field on 12 May. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on day 3 (13 May) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 May 098
  Predicted   11 May-13 May  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        10 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 May  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 May  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 May-13 May  012/012-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 May to 13 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%10%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%15%
Minor storm15%20%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%01%

All times in UTC

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