Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 April 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. The majority of the C-class activity originated from Regions 1191 (N08E56) and 1193 (N17E71). Region 1190 (N12W00) continues to be the most complex as an Eac-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration, but has not produced much activity. Region 1193 was numbered today as it rotated onto the east limb and is a Dao-type group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with the chance for M-class activity increasing during the next three days (14-16 April) as new Region 1193 continues to rotate onto the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with major storm periods observed at high latitudes during the past 24 hours. The activity was the result of elevated wind speeds associated with a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods on day one (14 April) due to residual effects from the CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (15-16 April) as the effects from the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Apr 118
  Predicted   14 Apr-16 Apr  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        13 Apr 102
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr  014/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Apr  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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