Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 April 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1190 (N15E12) produced three C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C3 event at 12/0607Z. Region 1190 increased in area from 40 millionths to approximately 70 millionths. New Regions 1191 (N09E73) and 1192 (N10E03) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class flares are likely for the next three days (13 - 15 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Two periods of K=5 were observed at high latitudes during the period. The increase was in response to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind speeds measured at the ACE Spacecraft increased from approximately 550 km/s to approximately 650 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (13 - 15 April) as the coronal hole high-speed stream effects decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Apr 110
  Predicted   13 Apr-15 Apr  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        12 Apr 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Apr  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr to 15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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