Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There were three B class flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1240 (S18E02) produced a B2 at 0213Z and appeared to be slowly growing. Region 1236 (N16W46) was unchanged but produced a B5 at 1240Z and a B4 at 1407Z. Region 1239 (N16W27) was slowly decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active for the past 24 hours. ACE solar wind data showed elevated velocities around 600 to 700 km/s consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. A sudden impulse was observed at 0258Z and measured 22 nT at the Boulder magnetometer. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active with a chance for minor storm periods at mid-latitudes and isolated major storm periods at high latitudes for tomorrow (24 June). This activity is expected as a response to the arrival of the halo CME observed on 21 June. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels for the second day (25 June), and quiet to unsettled levels for the third day (26 June).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jun 096
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  007/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  018/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  025/030-012/018-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%05%
Minor storm30%10%01%
Major-severe storm20%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%05%
Minor storm35%15%01%
Major-severe storm30%10%01%

All times in UTC

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