Viewing archive of Friday, 24 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There were two B class flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1236 (N17W61) was unchanged but produced a B3 event at 23/2233Z and a B4 event at 1549Z. Region 1240 (S19W12) and new Region 1241 (N19W08) appeared to be slowly growing but were small and stable. Region 1239 (N17W44) was slowly decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Observations of the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated speeds between 590 - 630 km/s, consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jun 096
  Predicted   25 Jun-27 Jun  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        24 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun  016/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jun  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun  012/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%10%10%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%10%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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